As South East Queensland prepares for a possible first cyclone landfall in 50 years, two University of the Sunshine Coast researchers provide expertise on the coastal damage it could cause and how satellites are tracking it.
UniSC Associate Professor of Physical Geography Javier Leon, who is working today at Noosa beaches, warns of the extreme hazards facing a coastline already eroded by the weekend’s high winds, swell and tides:
“Tropical Cyclone Alfred will have a significant impact on regional beaches and dunes.
"Waves are expected to peak at seven metres from a southeasterly direction, which would make this a 1 in 20 or 1 in 50 AEP (annual exceedance probability) event, similar to Tropical Cyclone Oma back in 2019.
"What makes Alfred uniquely hazardous is that, as opposed to Oma, the coast is already eroded from the run of northeasterly and easterly swells and very high tides in the past couple of days.
"This means that as peak wave heights approach the coast at some stage this Wednesday, the chances of overtopping and flooding are high, especially during high tide.
"Similarly, Bribie Island has already been subject to considerable erosion, with reports of the Happy Valley channel reopening.
"This would have serious implications for places such as Golden Beach, which are now very exposed to wave energy.”
UniSC Associate Professor of Geospatial Analysis Sanjeev Srivastava explains which satellites are used to track cyclone pathways – including the importance of a Japanese satellite in southern hemisphere predictions:
“The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is currently monitoring Tropical Cyclone Alfred using national weather watch radars.
"In addition, BOM relies on various remote sensing satellites that continuously collect data on the Earth’s surface and atmosphere from space.
"These satellites gather information not only in the visible range but also in the near-infrared, shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, and microwave regions of the electromagnetic spectrum.
"For tropical cyclones, these sensors provide valuable and diverse information that tracks the cyclones and offers crucial parameters for predicting their pathways.
"While most geostationary weather monitoring satellites provide real-time or near-real-time data on the cyclone’s eye and pathways, low Earth orbit satellites, especially those collecting microwave data, offer high-resolution information on the extent of subsequent inundation.
"Microwave sensors can penetrate clouds, providing real-time data on sea surface temperature and surface winds, which are key parameters for predicting a cyclone’s path.
"BOM and other websites, such as Zoom Earth, offer interactive weather maps of the world.
"Key satellites include NOAA’s polar (NOAA series) and geostationary (GOES), EUMETSAT Meteosat, JMA Himawari, and KAI Geo-KOMPSAT geostationary satellites.
"For the southern hemisphere, the Japanese Himawari satellite is crucial for providing real-time information and BOM’s numerical weather prediction models for forecasting."
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