Get ready for tense, unpredictable times across the globe as President-elect Donald Trump makes his triumphant return to the White House, says University of the Sunshine Coast international relations expert Dr Shannon Brincat.
“No-one has a crystal ball in politics and Trump’s second inauguration will make things even less predictable across global politics,” Dr Brincat said.
“With his preferred ‘fast and furious’ style of decision-making, there is increased growing uncertainty among America’s allies, friends and neighbours as to what the next four years will bring in their relationships.
“Domestically, we are already seeing increased polarisation and problematic discourses from social media platforms losing fact-checking in the name of free speech, and the massive influence that billionaires like Elon Musk are having on the democratic process.”
What’s in store for Australia?
Dr Brincat said the invitation to Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Ambassador Kevin Rudd to attend the swearing-in was a promising sign for reaffirming Australia’s relations with the United States.
Meanwhile, he said it was difficult to say if Mr Rudd’s invitation indicated the past discord between the two was forgotten or resolved.
“Kevin Rudd’s inclusion is more likely due to diplomatic niceties rather than some rapprochement between them. Nevertheless, AUKUS/ANZUS remains cornerstones of Australia’s defence, and this meeting will bolster confidence in this relationship,” he said.
Dr Brincat said it was likely that security concerns would dominate meetings between Senator Wong and Mr Rudd with members of the Trump administration and congress following the inauguration.
"Issues around trade are also expected to be raised as Australia attempts to avoid some of the tariffs Trump has vowed to impose on all foreign imports," he said.
“Australia should be utmost concerned with weaving a productive line between security and economic needs, pushing for our independent engagement with the Asia-Pacific given the importance of our trade with key partners.”
Global politics under Trump 2.0
Dr Brincat expects global tensions and unpredictability will be early features of Mr Trump’s second term as US President.
“The strange calls about Canada becoming the 51st state, renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and the aggressive claims regarding the sovereignty of Greenland are cause for concern,” he said.
“On the other hand, Trump has been quite outspoken regarding the Gaza crisis and the ceasefire promises a welcome pause to this humanitarian disaster – though this is far from a satisfactory resolution to Palestinian self-determination.
"The war in Ukraine will also be an important test of Trump’s presidency and his leadership of the West and NATO allies.
“Closer to our region, we can expect increased tensions around security and trade especially between the US and how it seeks to limit China’s rise.
“As geopolitical power shifts ever more to the East in the ‘Asian Century’, this will be a key area for diplomatic wrangling – and we must hope for a return to multilateral processes through bodies such as the United Nations.
“However this seems unlikely given Trump’s tendency for transactional leadership and preference for direct bilateral relations with individual leaders and nation states."
The domestic Trump agenda
"Front and centre domestically, Trump will be addressing concerns about employment and inflation," Dr Brincat said.
“Here, it is a question of whether Trump will be able to lead in the way he likes and place his favoured candidates in positions of power. Whether other powerful Republicans will be able to contain his ambitions, will be a crucial factor."
Immigration will also be a major early topic for the new president.
"The tense and public contest over H-1B Visas between Trump and Musk is a telling indication of how this presidency will function," Dr Brincat said.
“The debates over immigration highlight the frayed alliances with the Republicans and what this new administration will be able to achieve."
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